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Posts Tagged ‘NCAA Tournament projections’

Bracketology: Diving into the Bubble

January 31, 2020 Leave a comment

Dave2015It’s been an interesting week for Bubble teams.  Texas Tech, Virginia and Mississippi State posted key wins.  Many others lost; some to good opponents and others to not-so-strong opponents.  Amid the chaos, a deep dive was required, with more than twenty team resumes parceled apart, trying to separate nuances. The result?

Bracketology

About what you would expect – a quagmire of mediocrity with some good, some bad, and a whole lot of average.  Ten people, such as the Selection Committee, could view the same material and develop different responses as to how teams might be placed on the Seed List.  Not so sure about today’s outcome?  Wait until Monday.

It was a particularly rough week for Stanford, which lost at California on Sunday and at home last night to Oregon State.  Those results leave the Cardinal without a Quad 1 win and two Quad 3 losses.  And with just three Quad 2 wins (only one of which is in today’s bracket) Stanford’s light resume became even lighter.  Every year we have a team whose NET rating doesn’t seem to match its profile.  For now, Stanford fits that bill.

Bracketology: Top seeds remain in place

January 24, 2020 Leave a comment

Dave2015It’s been a while since we could say this:  All four No. 1 seeds remained in place between bracket updates: Baylor, Gonzaga, Kansas and San Diego State.

Bracketology

Elsewhere, more than a handful of teams still have significant resume questions.  And several current bubble teams have important showdowns this weekend – including key matchups in the Big 12 / SEC Challenge.

On a closing note … remember that the Selection Committee evaluates a team’s entire profile, from beginning to end.  How a team performed in its last ten games is no longer an official criteria (although each Committee member may have his or her own perspective on its importance).  So while Ohio State and Michigan, as examples, have both struggled of late, each team’s early wins remain relevant considerations with regard to team sheet evaluation.

Quick Takes: Kentucky starting to roll

January 30, 2019 Leave a comment

Dave2015Kentucky is starting to look like the team we expected back in October – a team with No. 1 seed potential.  Prior to steamrolling Vanderbilt in Nashville, the Wildcats were carrying a trio of victories over Auburn, Mississippi State and Kansas.  That’s a pretty good trifecta, even if Auburn and Mississippi State haven’t yet been as good as we thought.

Looking ahead, the most anticipated dates on UK’s remaining calendar are February 16 and March 2 – the Wildcats’ matchups with Tennessee.  If Kentucky is in contention for a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday those two outcomes will likely play a major factor.   Up next: a tricky trip to Florida. The desperate Gators need a big win to boost their NCAA resume. Read more…

Bracketology: An oversized early bubble

January 28, 2019 Leave a comment

Dave2015We still have five top-line resumes. Seven if you include Gonzaga and Kentucky.  Ultimately, though, with its third loss after a tough trip to surging Purdue, Michigan State was the odd team out today, now slotted as the top two-seed and No. 5 on the Seed List.  If you have a different take, I won’t argue.  Attrition within the ACC, SEC, and Big Ten will help define where we go from here.  And when the dust settles, don’t be surprised if Gonzaga again finds itself No. 1 in the West Region come Selection Sunday.

Bracketology   |   Seed List

The real dilemma today was finding 36 at-large teams to complete the bracket.  I’ll leave the term “worthy” off for now because, quite frankly, several teams in the field today have significant resume issues.  In all, 11 teams along the cutline lost this past weekend – which means we basically ended up about where we started.  If you’re a fan of one of the bubble teams at least you haven’t fallen too far behind.  The door is wide open as we head into February.

Bracketology: Michigan State gets its due

January 24, 2019 Leave a comment

Dave2015Michigan State has completed a near two-month stretch of perfection, last losing at Louisville on November 27.  The Spartans’ run includes an impressive 8-0 start in the Big Ten and a 5-0 road record since that loss to the Cardinals.  Add in an impressive 7-2 mark against Group 1 (NET ratings) and MSU has a solid top-seed profile.

Bracketology   |   Seed List

In the interest of full disclosure, we have seven teams with viable one-seed resumes, and Kentucky is quickly building its case, too.  The race is on.

The middle and lower-end of the bracket remains littered with mix of average to questionable profiles.  That’s pretty typical for this time of year.  With Buffalo’s recent loss, Bowling Green earns the Mid-American’s automatic bid this morning; bumping the Bulls into the at-large pool.  That takes away one at-large spot from someone else.

Seed List: Maryland keeps climbing

January 19, 2019 Leave a comment

Dave2015Maryland kicked off a busy weekend in college hoops Friday night by winning its sixth straight Big Ten game and seventh straight overall.  The Terps’ road victory in Columbus was their third league road win and pushed them to 7-1 in B10 play.  Their lone conference loss: at Purdue by two points in early December.  With five Group 1 wins in tow, Maryland slides up to No. 9 on the Seed List this morning.

Seed List

Ohio State, meanwhile, has lost four straight and closes January with Purdue, Michigan, and Nebraska, the latter two on the road.  Elsewhere Friday, Villanova pushed past Xavier and Buffalo kept winning, defeating Eastern Michigan in MAC action.

Early Saturdays offer a good opportunity to scrub the Seed List and reset as needed.  Not a lot of changes this morning, but a few minor tweaks.  Enjoy a great Saturday of college hoops.

Quick Takes: Who’s the fourth No. 1 seed?

January 16, 2019 Leave a comment

Dave2015As we peek ahead toward Thursday’s bracket, one question stands out: Who’s the fourth No. 1 seed?  Is it Duke, which lost to Syracuse but was missing key players?  Is it Kansas, who has more Group 1 wins than anyone against the nation’s No. 1 schedule?  Or is it Michigan State, who is tied with KU with nine wins against Groups 1/2 and whose two losses (Kansas, at Louisville) are by a combined 10 points?

One could make a compelling case for any of the three, and since Selection Sunday is still two months away, it’s really not all that important today.  At quick glance, I would favor Kansas by a slight margin for these reasons: the Jayhawks’ top-rated schedule; their superior total of Group 1 wins, especially since two of those wins are Tennessee and Michigan State, and that head-to-head win over MSU as a tiebreaker.  The other No. 1’s on Thursday will be Michigan, Virginia, and the aforementioned Volunteers. Read more…