Posts Tagged ‘NCAA Tournament’

Bracketology: Villanova grabs final No. 1 seed

March 2, 2015 Leave a comment

dave1It’s been a topic of discussion for several weeks.  What would happen if Gonzaga lost?  Would they fall?  Who would take their place as a No. 1 seed?  Following the ‘Zags home loss to BYU – which also vaulted the Cougars into a First Four game in today’s bracket  – we have an answer: Villanova, at least for now.

Current Bracket Projection

Current Seed List

The Wildcats – there are two of them (Kentucky) on the top line – slide into the West Region; following UK, Virginia, and Duke.  We say for now, because Wisconsin and Arizona also continue to push for that final spot.  And it’s conceivable we could see a shift among spots 2-6 on the Seed List between now and Selection Sunday.  We know that either Virginia or Duke will lose at least one more game – both play in the ACC tournament.  If Wisconsin, Villanova, and Arizona all win out it’ll be interesting to see how the Committee dissects that group of profiles.

With just under two weeks until Selection Sunday, we have several unclaimed spots in the bracket.  Perhaps more than ever, conference tournament games could prove decisive .  It’ll be even more interesting should we have an upset winner or two.  The Atlantic 10 race is a good example – as of this posting, there are three teams tied atop the standings.  There are another three teams – VCU, Richmond, and Massachusetts – all within a game or two of the top.  It’s perfectly conceivable that anyone of those teams could grab the automatic bid.

It’s March.  The Madness is almost here.

Bracketology: Kentucky reigns as March arrives

February 27, 2015 Leave a comment

dave1As the calendar turns to March, Kentucky has entrenched itself as the No. 1 overall seed.  Unless the Wildcats lose multiple times between now and Selection Sunday – which is highly unlikely – they will stand atop the bracket when the official Field of 68 is unveiled on March 15.   UK’s proverbial “march” will begin in Louisville and head through Cleveland in the Midwest Region.

Current Bracket Projection

Current Seed List

As for the remaining No. 1 seeds, Virginia has a firm grasp on the East.  After that, there’s still a bit of a race.  If Gonzaga loses, Villanova is next in line to ascend to the top line.  We also can’t exclude Wisconsin, Arizona, or even Kansas – although the Jayhawks will need help from the others in front of them.  While winning both Big 12 regular season and tournament titles (if it happens) would be mighty impressive, the Jayhawks’ loss total might be too great to push KU ahead of the other three if those teams continue to win.

The bubble/cutline remains a hodge-podge of rotating resumes.  The week ahead – leading into conference tournaments – figures to be huge.  And it might be Friday or Saturday of Championship Week before the final Field comes into focus.

Bracket Bits: Placing teams on the top two seed lines

February 17, 2015 Leave a comment

dave1Let’s talk about something positive, like the eight teams positioned along the top two seed lines.  For all the middling around the cutline, this group continues to shine: Kentucky, Virginia, Gonzaga, Duke, Kansas, Villanova, Wisconsin, and Arizona.  While we can’t “lock” anyone into a position yet, these eight are rapidly pushing toward a slot on the top two lines of the eventual bracket in March. So, here’s today’s question:

How are the teams placed in bracket regions?

As a guideline, geography takes precedence based on the Seed List order. Currently, Kentucky is No. 1 on the list, so the Wildcats would be given first preference. Regional sites are located in Cleveland (Midwest), Syracuse (East), Houston (South), Los Angeles (West).  Cleveland is closest to Lexington (KY) so Kentucky slots into the Midwest.  The rest of the current No. 1 seeds then fall into place: Virginia (Syracuse – East), Gonzaga (Los Angeles – West), and Duke (Houston – South).

Here’s where the debate begins. Seed List order matters on the second line, but so does geography.  Selection Committee members can balance regions (based on the first four seed lines) using spots 9-12 and 13-16.  Monday – before Kansas lost at West Virginia – the Jayhawks were No. 5 on the Seed List.  That would put them opposite the No. 4 team (Duke) in the South Region.  In this case, the so-called s-curve worked perfectly, as that would be KU’s preferred location.  Next up was Villanova.  If the true s-curve model were followed, Villanova would go West, opposite Gonzaga.  But the Committee also knows that Arizona (No. 8 on the list) will be placed on the two-line.  Thus, it offers them the opportunity to keep Villanova in its home region (East); a win for both teams and their fans.  Wisconsin would naturally choose the Midwest, so the Badgers move opposite Kentucky.  If this set-up holds, placing the top two lines into the bracket will actually be an easy exercise.  Read more…

Bracket: Eight teams in the race for No. 1 seeds

February 6, 2015 Leave a comment

dave1Headlined by unbeaten Kentucky, eight teams enter the stretch run toward Selection Sunday as No. 1 seed contenders.  Based on the Seed List for today’s bracket, those contenders in order are: Kentucky, Virginia, Gonzaga, Kansas, Duke, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Villanova.

Bracket Update – February 6

Seed List – February 6

Notre Dame and Louisville could potentially enter the mix, although the Irish, in particular, have a major hurdle to overcome: a non-conference schedule ranked among the worst in college basketball (No. 326).  That type of non-league schedule likely won’t be rewarded by the Selection Committee unless the Irish win the Atlantic Coast Conference (season and tourney).

With the Super Bowl behind us, March Madness begins to grab headlines.  So if you’re just settling back into college hoops, here’s one other thing you need to know about the bracket and overall landscape of the projected NCAA tournament field, as of today.  There’s a lot of mediocre teams and resumes.  The proverbial bubble?  It basically includes teams seeded 8th or lower, and some of the 7-seeds have question marks.  Which means that much of the bracket will ebb and flow over the next month.  Much like the weather, if you’re not satisfied, wait a couple of days – it’s likely to change.

Bracket update: Virginia pushing for another No. 1 seed

January 9, 2015 Leave a comment

dave1As we begin the march toward Selection Sunday, Virginia has again put itself in position to compete for a No.1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Cavaliers completed an unbeaten non-conference slate and have all the resume numbers firmly intact. Only a tough Atlantic Coast Conference docket, which includes projected ACC champion Duke, is keeping UVA off the top line in today’s bracket.  Who are the No. 1 seeds?  The same four teams who opened the season atop the Field of 68 – Kentucky, Duke, Wisconsin, and Arizona.

January 9 – Bracket Projection

January 9 – Seed List

As noted in the New Year’s Day update, we have some quirky resumes on the at-large board.  Take for example, Providence. The Friars have quality wins over Notre Dame and Butler and own a solid 7-2 mark vs. the current RPI Top 100. Those same Friars also own losses to Boston College and Brown (at home).  It’s been one of those years.

Then we have a team like Wyoming – which could ultimately be bogged down by a weak non-conference schedule. The Cowboys look like an NCAA team, but will need a strong Mountain West effort to overcome a non-conference SOS ranked No. 343 (out of 351 teams). Read more…

Kentucky rings in New Year as No. 1 overall seed

January 1, 2015 Leave a comment

dave1Here’s your New Year’s Day forecast … the Kentucky Wildcats will be a No. 1 seed when the 2015 Men’s Division I Basketball Championship bracket is unveiled in March.  That shouldn’t come as a surprise.  Thus far, the ultra-talented Wildcats have conquered every challenge.  And while an undefeated season may or may not occur, it’s hard to imagine UK faltering enough to lose its grip on the Midwest region.  We could say similar things about Duke’s hold on the East.  But the Blue Devils’ route through the ACC figures to be a bit more rigorous than the Wildcats’ drive through the SEC.  Either way, UK and Duke hold the top two spots in today’s updated bracket projection – followed by Wisconsin (South) and Arizona (West).

January 1 Bracket Projection

January 1 Seed List

One could easily make an argument that Virginia and Villanova should be ranked ahead of Wisconsin and Arizona.  But before we drop the Badgers or West-Coast Wildcats from their preseason perches, let’s see how conference play unfolds.

If you’ve followed college hoops during the first two months, you’re well aware of the quirky resumes available for review. So take the current bracket (and Seed List) for what it is … a synopsis of where we are now, with some potential mixed in, and a whole lot of educated guesswork.  Simply put: there isn’t much difference between an 8-seed and a team listed among the First Five out.  With a lack of strong non-conference profiles, league results will play a huge role in determining at-large candidates. Read more…

Bracket update: Florida, Arizona battle for No. 1 overall seed

March 3, 2014 Leave a comment

dave1We’re two weeks from Selection Sunday and we’ve got a long way to go.

Championship Week is going to be fun and tension-filled.  As this juncture, as many as 15 at-large spots remain uncertain.  That’s a high number entering March.  Here’s what we do know.  Barring an unexpected turn of events, Florida and Arizona will be No. 1 seeds.  Although the Gators retain their overall No. 1 seed today, the Wildcats may pass them soon.  Either way, it’s about time to lock them in to the South and West regions.

Bracket Update


Today’s bracket is also quite unsettled when it comes to the seed list.  The first four lines (s-curve spots 1-16) are pretty solid (for now).  The middle tier could fluctuate greatly depending on conference tournament results.  Teams are that tightly bunched.  As for the bubble, it continues to move and shift.  Depending on which resume criteria or metrics you prefer, the final teams in and first teams out could be ranked in a variety of orders.  Every Selection Committee member will have his or her own viewpoint.  Hopefully, a few things will clear between now and March 16.

It’s also worth mentioning the potential for bid thieves – a surprise team winning its conference tournament.  For example, if Wichita State were to lose in the Missouri Valley tourney, there would be one less at-large bid available.  We saw this happen at the SEC tournament a year ago.

Buckle up, it’s going to be a fun ride.

Categories: Current Updates

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