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Posts Tagged ‘NCB’

Quick Takes: Composite rankings and the Seed List

January 16, 2017 Leave a comment

Dave2015This past week, the NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee hinted that it may consider integrating a wider range of metrics into its selection and seeding process.  Although the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) has been the NCAAs primary tool for organizing teams, committee members have been free to utilize other metrics for several years – so this isn’t totally new territory.  Additional metrics include KenPom (Ken Pomeroy), Sagarin, and BPI ratings, among others.  Using various analytics, the ratings are designed to provide an objective overview about how teams perform beyond wins/losses, team records, etc.  You can decide for yourself how well the various ratings work.  We all have our preferences.  And the goal here isn’t to discuss the merits and pitfalls of each.

Interestingly, the Selection Committee also hinted that it could end up integrating a type of composite score (rating) for teams based upon the metrics selected for inclusion.  How that might look (and be calculated) remains to be seen.  But in the interest of college hoops fans (and a certain bracket nerd), I took the liberty of developing a composite for the teams at the very top of our seed list, and for some along the proverbial bubble.  Let’s take a look at how the process worked, along with some interesting side notes.  For this story, the composite rankings include the RPI, NPI (Nolan Power Index – Warren Nolen), ELO Chess, KenPom, and Sagarin.

Here’s the Top 10 on our Seed List – in order for Jan. 16, 2017 – with composite ranking in parenthesis: Read more…

Bracketology: The race for No. 1 seeds

December 30, 2016 Leave a comment

Dave2015It’s New Year’s weekend.  Conference play has started.  The race toward March is upon us, and with it, the race for No. 1 Seeds.  Today, those slots belong to Villanova, Kansas, Baylor, and UCLA.  Villanova’s survival against DePaul, and UCLA’s last-second loss at Oregon do not change those team’s positions.  Opinions vary, of course, but the next four spots on the Seed List look like this: Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Gonzaga.  If you have a different order, that’s fine.  For me, UCLA’s win at Kentucky still trumps a one-loss Duke team, whose best win is Florida on a neutral court.

Bracketology   |   Seed List

Indiana and Texas AM take the biggest slides.  When the Hoosiers are good, they’re really good – as noted by wins over Kansas and Carolina.  But IU has also been inconsistent and played a rather ugly non-conference schedule for a team with its roster and pedigree.  The result?  IU has an RPI of 122 (as of this posting), with the loss at Fort Wayne and then at home to Nebraska.  The Hoosiers are too talented to be concerned, but a protected seed has to be earned.  With that in mind, Louisville awaits on Saturday. Read more…

2016 Tourney: Ranking a power-heavy Elite 8

March 26, 2016 Leave a comment

Dave2015Given what we’ve seen this season, we shouldn’t be overly surprised to find a six and ten seed in the Elite 8.  We also shouldn’t be surprised to find six power-heavy teams.  At various points during the 2016 campaign, Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia, Oklahoma, and Villanova all grabbed spots along the No. 1 seed line.  Oregon was among the Top 8 for the better part of February and ended at No. 5 on our list.  They were the final No. 1 seed on the NCAA Board, which fits the theme.

If you believe in destiny (or maybe redemption), then you embrace Notre Dame and Syracuse.  The Irish needed a miraculous tip-in to beat Stephen F. Austin and a pair of late steals/turnovers to upend Wisconsin.  Syracuse was undoubtedly helped by an incredible performance from Middle Tennessee that ousted Michigan State in the opening round.  The Orange deserve all the credit for reaching the Regional Final; they beat the teams they faced.  We can say that and still acknowledge that reaching the Elite 8 required beating a seven seed, 15 seed, and 11 seed.  Good fortune is important in March.

So … heading into the Regional Finals, how would you rank the remaining eight teams?  Based on what I’ve seen the past two weeks, here’s my list: Read more…

2016 Tourney Tip-Off: Rapid-Fire Questions by Region

March 17, 2016 Leave a comment

Dave2015In three short, dramatic weeks, a familiar anthem will play.  You can almost hear One Shining Moment in the background.  If our Journey to Houston is as good as Championship Week – buzzer beaters, overtimes, half-court heaves –  it’ll be another event for the ages.

By now you’ve likely read hundreds of previews and tossed a couple of practice brackets in the trash.  Which upsets to pick?  Who’ll reach the Final Four?  Will Cinderella emerge?  So rather than simply provide you a list of picks (boring at best, wrong at worst), let’s take a peek at the possibilities – first as a whole, and then Region-by-Region.  Along the way, I’ll give you my selections for the Final Four.  It’ll give you something to throw in my face next November.

Tournament Questions …

Will a 16-Seed win?  Start with an easy question. No. Although it would be a fun to go Dunk City after FGCU’s dominant win over Fairleigh-Dickinson, let’s remember that the Eagles finished behind North Florida in the Atlantic Sun standings and that Hampton is the only 16-seed to win its league’s regular-season title.  Asking the Pirates to beat Virginia in Raleigh is a tall order. Read more…

Bracket Update: Zags go Dancing again

March 9, 2016 Leave a comment

Dave2015Sleep well, Spokane, Gonzaga is Dancing again.

Meanwhile, Saint Mary’s joins a growing list of at-large teams hoping there’s a ticket left when they reach the front of the line.  That list includes teams like Monmouth, Wichita State, and Valparaiso.  Their resumes are complete.  All they can do is wait and watch what unfolds around them.

Bracketology   |   Seed List

It could be an important day for Syracuse and Pittsburgh at the ACC tournament.  Florida State needs to win a few there as well.  USC and Oregon State will try to hold their positions via the Pac-12.  All-in-all, a busy day to hold serve or build momentum.  And it’s only Wednesday.

Enjoy the Madness.

Bracket Update: Long wait ahead for Monmouth

March 8, 2016 Leave a comment

Dave2015This year’s NCAA tournament bubble became that much more intriguing Monday night.  If you love drama, it’s shaping up to be an intense week.  In that past two days, we’ve seen Wichita State, Monmouth, and Valparaiso join the at-large pool as conference champions with legitimate at-large hopes.  That’s three additional resumes for the Selection Committee to review, dissect, and compare at their bunker in downtown Indianapolis.  How it all shakes out by Sunday afternoon is unknown.  What we do know is that it’s going to be a long wait for Monmouth, one of this year’s most talked-about teams.

Bracketology   |   Seed List

We touched on Wichita State yesterday; the Shockers are hoping a dominant run through the Missouri Valley, combined with a strong non-conference SOS and a win over Utah will hold up.  Valparaiso has a win at Oregon State, but probably needs a little more help.

Given the results of the past two days, there should be an even greater sense of urgency for those along the cutline.  If Wichita State and Monmouth both end up earning bids, there are two less slots available.

Seed List update: St. Bonaventure, VCU slide into Field

March 3, 2016 Leave a comment

Dave2015For different reasons, St. Bonaventure and Virginia Commonwealth (VCU) join the Field of 68 in today’s Seed List update.  In the case of VCU, the Rams own the Atlantic 10 lead and thus have a reserved spot as an automatic qualifier (AQ).  As for the Bonnies, their win at Saint Joseph’s moved them ahead of Tulsa.  Alabama falls out following its home loss to Arkansas.  It’s worth noting that Tulsa was actually bumped by VCU regaining the AQ, as it took one at-large spot away.  It’s a good illustration of how the process works during Championship Week.

Seed List

Joining St. Bonaventure in the First Four: Butler, Cincinnati, and Michigan.  The four just above them (final byes) are Vanderbilt, USC, Oregon State, Connecticut.  The margin (if any) between these eight is very small.  It remains true: teams from the 7-line on down still have work to do to reach a safety zone.

The SEC tournament figures to be huge for Vanderbilt, Alabama, Florida, and LSU.  It’s unlikely that more than two from that group will make the final bracket.  On a similar note, the Atlantic 10 tourney could prove decisive for St. Bonaventure, VCU, George Washington, and even Saint Joseph’s.  Without a “bad” loss on their resume, the Hawks are in overall better shape, but if they were to lose to Duquesne and also their first A10 tourney game, it could get a little more interesting. We’ll see.