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Posts Tagged ‘No. 1 Seeds’

Bracketology: Don’t sleep on Xavier

February 2, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015Don’t sleep on X.  That would be Xavier.  The Musketeers have an opportunistic stretch ahead.  Navigate it successfully, and X will remain squarely in the hunt for a No. 1 seed.  To date, the Musketeers are 9-3 vs. Quadrants 1 and 2 on the new RPI breakdown sheets.  They own a Top 15 strength of schedule, and the metrics coincide with their profile.  That stretch?  It includes these four games in a row: at Butler, at Creighton, Seton Hall, Villanova.  Winning three of those would be strong.  Win all four?  That would be enough to place Xavier front and center in the top-seed discussion.

Bracketology    |    Seed List

The middle of the bracket remains very unsteady in terms of seeding.  The bubble isn’t overly deep, but the margins between those teams is thin.  February should be fun.

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Quick Takes: Searching for No. 1 seeds

January 17, 2018 Leave a comment

Dave2015That search for No. 1 seeds?  It’s far from over.  Oklahoma lost at Kansas State on Tuesday, meaning both the Sooners and West Virginia (on Monday) have lost this week – and it’s Wednesday morning.  Ultimately, our search may take a while.  In addition to depth and balance, particularly in the ACC and Big 12, we appear to lack – at least to this point – a handful of truly elite teams, teams you expect to win every night regardless of the opponent or where they play.  Instead, we have collective group of very good teams – fun for game action, but a little cloudy around the edges.

As of this morning, here’s a quick look at a handful of teams in relation to “wins against the field” – i.e. wins against teams currently projected to be at-large teams (based on Monday’s bracket) … Read more…

Quick Takes: Inside the top of the Seed List

January 22, 2017 Leave a comment

Dave2015It’s always fun to talk No. 1 and No. 2 seeds.  This season, we have a particularly high number of potential candidates.  As many as 12-15 teams could end up in play for those coveted eight spots.

For today’s purposes, I’ve selected nine teams to review, with the No. 1 seed line in mind, knowing only four can reside in those slots.  The next four would be No. 2 seeds.  First, let’s take a look at some metrics and composite rankings (since that’s all the rage, these days).  Note: Teams are listed in the order of the current seed list – heading into games on Monday, January 23.  Metric Rankings are through games played on Saturday, January 21 as none of the nine teams below played on Sunday.

Here are the metrics used: Read more…

Preseason Poll: No. 1 Seed Favorites

October 9, 2016 Leave a comment

Dave2015Welcome back!

College hoops is right around the corner.  Teams are practicing.  Tip-off is a mere month away.  Can March be far behind?

Okay, maybe that’s a bit dramatic, but here at Bracketville, hoops vacations are relatively short.  So … what better way to kick-off our 2016-17 campaign than a poll where you get to share your opinions about the early front-runners for No. 1 seeds.  Just know this … whether you’re a Duke fan or Blue Devil hater, we’ll be surprised if Coach K’s crew isn’t on a top seed line come Selection Sunday. Read more…

Bracket Update: The race for No. 1 seeds

February 15, 2016 Leave a comment

Dave2015As we settle in for the final push toward Selection Sunday, the race for No. 1 seeds is as open as it’s been in several years.  With its victory at Oklahoma on Saturday, Kansas resides in today’s Pole Position.  The aforementioned Sooners are close behind, followed by Villanova and North Carolina.

Bracketology   |   Seed List

Within that group of four, Villanova has the easiest path to retain a No. 1 seed.  If you look at the Wildcats’ remaining schedule, they should be favored in every game – with the exception of their trip to Xavier.  As such, Nova could be  27-4 (assuming just one more loss – which is a dangerous thing this season) heading into the Big East Tournament.  Given the likelihood that a few of the other No. 1 contenders will also lose another game or two, it leaves Villanova in prime position to be a top seed next month.  It may or may not be in the East Region.

Who are the other No. 1 seed contenders?  Today’s two-line includes Virginia, Xavier, Iowa, and West Virginia.  We would also have to include Maryland, Michigan State, and Miami-FL.  Could someone else sneak in?  It’s possible, but not as likely – given the teams ahead of them.  Even so, the fact that we have 11 teams in play at this point in February is quite remarkable.

The bubble remains an on-going merry-go-round and that’s unlikely to change. Championship Week is shaping up to be an important separator for the final at-large positions.

Bracketology: No. 1 seed line remains unsettled

March 6, 2015 Leave a comment

dave1With just over a week until Selection Sunday, the No. 1 seed line remains unsettled.  Kentucky will be the No. 1 overall seed; that much is clear.  We’re also confident that some combination of these teams will comprise the other three spots on the top line: Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Wisconsin, Arizona, or Gonzaga.  That’s six teams for three spots.

Current Bracket Projection

Current Seed List

Virginia also looks pretty locked-in as a one-seed; it would take a loss Saturday at Louisville, and an earlier-than-expected exit from the ACC tournament, to create the potential for a slip.  Which leaves us, more realistically, with five teams for two spots.  In today’s bracket, Duke and Villanova hold spots three and four on the Seed List, with Wisconsin and Arizona next in line.  Gonzaga will be discussed, but the Bulldogs likely need every team ahead of them to lose in order to move back up. Read more…

February 23 Bracket: Gonzaga fighting for No. 1 seed

February 23, 2015 Leave a comment

dave1The bubble continues to ebb and flow with a collection of pedestrian resumes maneuvering toward Championship Week.  So instead of discussing a revolving door, let’s address perhaps the most-debated question regarding current bracket projections: Should Gonzaga be a No. 1 seed?

Current Bracket Projection

Current Seed List

Let’s start here: the Selection Committee would prefer to have a “West-based” team atop the West Region.  Gonzaga – and Arizona, obviously – both fit that description and both teams have resumes that would put them in the discussion.  Which brings us to the finer points of the ‘Zags resume.  The numbers are pretty strong … Gonzaga is 8-1 against both RPI/BPI top 100 teams.  Here’s how the Bulldogs rank on various power ratings: RPI (8), BPI (4) and KenPom (5).   Gonzaga has non-conference wins over these current NCAA-projected teams: SMU, St. John’s, and Georgia.  The ‘Zags only loss was by three points at Arizona.

Those on the other side of the equation will argue that Gonzaga has played only two Top 100 teams (BYU and Saint Mary’s) since beginning West Coast Conference play, and that the league hasn’t challenged them enough to be a No. 1 seed.  They will argue that Gonzaga’s non-conference schedule wasn’t as strong as past years.  Both of those arguments are – at least to a certain point on the latter – true.  Of course, schedules are often made in advance, and Memphis and UCLA (as examples) haven’t been as good as expected.

Whichever side of the argument you fall on, it’s a healthy debate that will continue in Indianapolis prior to Selection Sunday.  But if Gonzaga wins out, and finishes with just one loss, odds would place the Bulldogs as favorites to be a No. 1 seed in the West.  We’ll see how it plays out.  If Gonzaga loses, the door will certainly be open for the four teams currently residing on the two-line: Villanova, Wisconsin, Kansas, and Arizona.