QT: Wild Saturday, Sunday’s Bracket Impact Games

Another tumultuous Saturday in college hoops.  Desperate for more victories, West Virginia and Wisconsin both lost a home.  Kentucky may have punched its ticket by sweeping Tennessee.  Clemson dropped a can’t-lose game at Louisville, a third Quad 4 loss. Utah State rallied and put away a critical home game against Nevada.  Illinois stumbled late at Indiana and missed a golden opportunity to firm up its seeding potential.

The list could go on-an-on …

Oh, and the Selection Committee revealed its initial Top 16, with Kansas fourth (beyond Purdue and Houston) despite having 12 (now 13) Quad 1 victories.  Things that make you go, hmm.  Purdue hosts fading Ohio State today and closes with three of four at home; the Boilermakers lone road trip is to Wisconsin.

Ahead to Sunday’s Bracket Impact Games:

North Carolina at NC State – If North Carolina is going to make a late push, it starts today in Raleigh.  NC State’s bracket status is okay this morning, but a late slide would not be advised.

QT: Carolina’s woes, West Virginia back on bubble

Fresh off a 20-point home victory against Clemson, North Carolina failed to build any momentum Monday against Miami in Chapel Hill, dropping an 80-72 decision to the Hurricanes.  The defeat leaves UNC in a tenuous position for the stretch run.  While the Tar Heels boast an overall strong schedule and lack a “bad” loss, they are 0-9 vs. Quad 1 opponents this morning and own exactly one win (NC State) over a team currently projected to earn an at-large bid.

If there’s any Valentine’s Day love available it’s this: UNC plays at NC State this Sunday.  They also host Virginia and Duke ahead of the ACC tournament.

A few miles to the north in Morgantown, West Virginia finds itself back on the bubble after Monday’s loss at Baylor.  Yes, the Big 12 is a nightly gauntlet, but at 15-11 overall, the Mountaineers’ margin for error is shrinking.  They are just 2-7 in true road games with remaining trips to Kansas and Iowa State.  That puts a premium on home games against Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Kansas State.

Tuesday’s Bracket Impact Games:

Bracketology: It’s a bubbly world for Blue Bloods

We have quite a race developing for a couple of No. 1 seed positions.  It’s also a bubbly world for two of college basketball’s signature programs: Kentucky and North Carolina.

Bracketology

As the bubble percolates, resumes continue to evolve.  When profiles are nip-and-tuck, a key result often has a ripple effect.  Thursday night is a perfect example:  Oregon ran away from USC to climb into the First Four.  It’s a result that also indirectly benefits Nevada.  Wisconsin also moves back into the Field of 68 despite a suspect NET rating.  Given other teams along the cutline, the Badgers collection of wins overshadows their metrics.  Ultimately, these decisions took a toll on North Carolina.  The Tar Heels enter the weekend as the First Team OUT.

Among the final three teams IN (Kentucky, Oregon, USC) – all have own a marquee victory.  It’s a separating factor other bubble teams do not (yet) possess.

Final thought: When providing quick turnarounds, slight resume variances can be missed.  Every few days, a deeper review is needed – such was the case Thursday night.  The good news: we’re now in the stretch run.  Time for bubble teams to make their case.  Just remember, more teams play their way out than play their way in.  Enjoy the weekend!

Seed List: Kentucky, Carolina squarely on the bubble

We’re just over a month from Selection Sunday and two teams who began the season with No. 1 seed aspirations are squarely on the bubble: Kentucky and North Carolina.  Both lost Tuesday night: UK at home to Arkansas and UNC at Wake Forest.  Neither loss was particularly competitive nor inspirational.  A four-month season has turned into a four-week race for the Wildcats and Tar Heels.

Seed List Update

Houston and Kansas are hot pursuit of the final No. 1 seed when Friday’s bracket arrives.  An informal Twitter poll on Tuesday heavily favored Kansas’ overall profile.  The Jayhawks own 10 wins against Quad 1 and the No. 1 overall strength of schedule in country.

More bubble action tonight.  Here’s a sneak peak at Wednesday’s Bracket Impact Games:

Bracketology: Texas joins No. 1 seeds; UNC joins bubble

As the outright leader of the Big 12, Texas vaults onto the top line as the final No. 1 seed this morning – joining Purdue, Alabama and Arizona.  Texas is an impressive 5-2 vs. the upper tier of Quad 1 (Q1A), three of those victories on the road.  Houston is next in line, followed by Kansas and Tennessee.  Purdue remains No. 1 overall.

Bracketology

Meanwhile, North Carolina has officially joined the bubble.  Much like a year ago, the Tar Heels lack NCAA-level victories and stand 1-7 vs. Quad 1.  The next three weeks figure to be decisive for UNC.

One other thought on the bubble: Take a look at some of the resume’s being considered.  It’s a strong argument against expanding the field.  As usual, there are a lot of ho-hum, meh resumes in the mix.  If there is a slight difference this year, the depth of the bubble is pretty slim.  We’ll see if that holds up between now and Championship Week.