Bracketology: It’s a bubbly world for Blue Bloods

We have quite a race developing for a couple of No. 1 seed positions.  It’s also a bubbly world for two of college basketball’s signature programs: Kentucky and North Carolina.

Bracketology

As the bubble percolates, resumes continue to evolve.  When profiles are nip-and-tuck, a key result often has a ripple effect.  Thursday night is a perfect example:  Oregon ran away from USC to climb into the First Four.  It’s a result that also indirectly benefits Nevada.  Wisconsin also moves back into the Field of 68 despite a suspect NET rating.  Given other teams along the cutline, the Badgers collection of wins overshadows their metrics.  Ultimately, these decisions took a toll on North Carolina.  The Tar Heels enter the weekend as the First Team OUT.

Among the final three teams IN (Kentucky, Oregon, USC) – all have own a marquee victory.  It’s a separating factor other bubble teams do not (yet) possess.

Final thought: When providing quick turnarounds, slight resume variances can be missed.  Every few days, a deeper review is needed – such was the case Thursday night.  The good news: we’re now in the stretch run.  Time for bubble teams to make their case.  Just remember, more teams play their way out than play their way in.  Enjoy the weekend!

Kansas rejoins No. 1 seeds + BIGs

After a brief, three-game blip, Kansas has regained its traction and rejoined the No. 1 seed line.  With a month to go – and numerous Quad 1 opportunities still ahead – there’s little ceiling for the Jayhawks on Selection Sunday.  Purdue remains No. 1 overall and will stay there regardless of its outcome this weekend at Indiana.

Seed List

It’s been a wild week along the bubble and Thursday’s results will go a long way toward finalizing the First Four and Next Four Out when a fresh bracket arrives Friday morning.

Thursday’s Bracket Impact Games (BIGs):

QT: Miami bolsters its resume, Miss State falls

Miami improved to 12-1 Tuesday night with a home victory over Virginia.  The Hurricanes are 3-0 in the early ACC season with a 5-1 mark against Quadrants 1/2.  Interestingly, non-NET metrics (both results-based and predictive) tend to think more of the ‘Canes than the NET.  Miami’s lone loss was to a hot-starting Maryland team on a neutral floor in November.  After a home date with Vermont, six of the Hurricane’s next eight ACC games are on the road.

Meanwhile, Mississippi State fell from the unbeaten ranks, losing to Drake in Lincoln, NE at the Battle for the Vault.  MSU had some relatively close calls with Jackson State and Nicholls recently, so maybe the Bulldogs have simply been coasting too much. After Christmas, MSU hosts Alabama and travels to Tennessee.  Life is about to get real.

QT: Oregon, Villanova, OSU join upset list

Oregon, Villanova and Oklahoma State are the latest early-season victims to take the Upset City off ramp. Florida State previously took the exit and then missed the returning on-ramp by falling at Central Florida (which lost to UNC Asheville) – a rather inauspicious start for the Seminoles, who opened their season at No. 40 on the preseason seed list.  Someone needs to send out an APB for FSU.

Oregon dropped a home game to UC-Irvine.
Villanova lost at Temple – which opened its season with a loss to Wagner.  Temple could well have a strong season, but the Wildcats losing here was still a bit surprising.  Insert reminder: true road games are never easy.
Oklahoma State fell at home to Southern Illinois.  The Salukis should challenge Drake in the Missouri Valley, so we could flip this as a resume-building win for SIU.  Either way, a notable result.

Toledo tops UAB
Somewhere down the road we could look back at Toledo’s neutral-court victory over Alabama-Birmingham as a building block toward at-large consideration.  UAB rightfully garnered a lot of preseason expectations out of Conference USA.  Toledo and Kent State are favorites for the Mid-American title.  Just something to keep in mind.

Bracketology: Bubble continues to percolate

Expect bubble teams to continue percolating over the next two weeks.  Fresh off a second victory over UCLA, the Oregon Ducks return to the Field of 68, heading into another busy and important weekend.  Three Atlantic 10 teams are closing in on the projected field, and while all three are not likely to make it through, the odds are increasing that at least two A10 teams will hear their names called on Selection Sunday.

Bracketology

Gonzaga and Arizona continue to headline the bracket – and both appear in prime position to be 1-2 on the final seed list.  Auburn and Kansas remain on the top line – with a trio of potential teams in pursuit: Baylor, Kentucky and Purdue.