Archive

Posts Tagged ‘S-curve’

Bracketology: Duke looks dangerous

March 11, 2017 Leave a comment

Dave2015As the final seconds ticked away in Brooklyn on Friday night, Duke celebrated a victory over rival North Carolina.  With it, the Blue Devils may also have secured the No. 2 seed in the East Region behind Villanova.  They certainly look dangerous.  Arizona tripped UCLA in the Pac-12, setting up a rematch with Oregon.  The winner will likely be the No. 2 seed out West.

Bracketology   |   Seed List

Vanderbilt continues its climb and could become the first at-large team with 15 losses, assuming they fall short in the SEC tourney.  Elsewhere on the bubble, teams like Kansas State, Wake Forest, USC, and Illinois State must sit and watch; their resumes complete.  Pay special attention to the Atlantic 10 semifinals.  Rhode Island is close to grabbing a spot, and two potential bid thieves lurk opposite the sets of Rams (URI, VCU).  Today, it’ll be time to re-scrub the seed list again as more resumes fill up.

Quick Takes: Moving Day in college hoops

March 9, 2017 Leave a comment

Dave2015If you’re a golf fan, you’ll understand the reference to Moving Day. Moving Day in a Major tournament is Saturday.  It’s the day when golfers position themselves for the final round on Sunday.  Today is a Moving Day in college hoops.

Bracketology   |   Seed List

Bubble teams Kansas State, Illinois, Iowa, California, and Vanderbilt- among others – take the court with a lot on the line.  The same can be said, potentially, for Xavier, and even USC, although both helped themselves by avoiding a bad loss on Wednesday.  Elsewhere, middle of the bracket teams like Michigan and Northwestern look to solidify their positions. Read more…

Quick Takes: Big day for Bubble teams

March 8, 2017 Leave a comment

Dave2015It’s an especially big day for Bubble teams: Syracuse, Wake Forest, and Clemson take the floor at the ACC tourney in Brooklyn.  It’s also the day when California and USC open Pac-12 tournament play, and Xavier gets a renewed matchup with DePaul in the opening round of the Big East.

Bracketology   |   Seed List

Then there’s Illinois State.  The Redbirds must sit and watch as action around them continues. Tomorrow, Illinois and Iowa try to make a final push at the Big Ten tourney. Friday, Rhode Island opens A-10 play.  It’s a worthy reminder than none of these games occur in a vacuum.  Each result has to be measured in context. Read more…

Quick Takes: ACC bubble picture

March 7, 2017 Leave a comment

Dave2015Three Atlantic Coast Conference bubble teams Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Clemson take to the court today in Brooklyn.  For Georgia Tech and Clemson, their ACC journeys probably need to last until at least Friday.  Wake begins with Boston College, an outcome that doesn’t necessarily help, but could certainly hurt. Tomorrow, Syracuse takes its turn, with a first-round match-up against Miami.

Here a Quick Peek at each …

Wake Forest (RPI: 32 |  SOS: 12  |  SOR: 33) – The Demon Deacons helped themselves immensely by beating Louisville (home) and Virginia Tech (road) to close the season.  They have nine (9) Top 100 wins and nothing resembling a bad loss.  If there’s a dent on the resume it’s this: the Deacons are still 3-8 against the best teams on their schedule.  Simply avoiding a loss to Boston College might be enough.  Beating Virginia Tech again would make life a bit easier on Sunday. Read more…

Bracketology: Big day in the Valley

March 5, 2017 2 comments

Dave2015It’s a big day in the Valley.  The Missouri Valley, that is.  Illinois State and Wichita State square off for the MVC championship under the Arch in St. Louis.  The winner punches its dance ticket.  The loser figures to have an anxiously long wait until Selection Sunday.  As of this morning, Wichita State retains its at-large spot in the bracket.  Illinois State is in as the auto bid due to its No. 1 seed in the league tourney.

Bracketology   |   Seed List

The questions are easy. The answers not so much.  Both Wichita State and Illinois State have put together outstanding seasons.  Unfortunately, the rest of the MVC was along for the ride; no other team cracked the Top 100 of the RPI.  Which leaves this year’s Selection Committee with an intriguing debate.  How to weigh consistency on the court over a full season versus the opportunities to collect notable wins in a more accomplished conference?  We’ll have to see how it plays out.

 

Bracketology: Kansas leads final march to Selection Sunday

March 2, 2017 Leave a comment

Dave2015March is here. Madness awaits.  The next ten days will be filled with hope, excitement, and anxiety as teams and fans await their 2017 NCAA Tournament bracket on Selection Sunday.  Between now and then, we still have several things to sort out.  Here’s what we know:  Kansas, fresh off yet another Big 12 title, sits atop the bracket, followed closely by Villanova.  Both the Jayhawks and Wildcats look fairly entrenched on the top line.  The other two spots remain in play.  Will Gonzaga hold on?  Will a Pac-12 team make a jump to the one line?  Can North Carolina survive the ACC tournament and keep its perch in the South?

Bracketology  |  Seed List

Each of those story lines should be fun to watch.  And we haven’t even talked about the bubble.  Illinois, Wake Forest, and Kansas State all helped themselves Wednesday.  USC and California are trying to hold on and state their case.  Xavier continues to struggle, its NCAA outlook now unclear.  Next week’s conference tournaments loom large for final seeding and selection.  If a few bid stealers emerge,  hold on.

Quick Takes: Illinois, Vandy among surprise bubble teams

February 28, 2017 2 comments

Dave2015Even with a weak bubble that features a host of double-digit loss resumes, a couple of surprising bubble teams have re-emerged: Illinois and Vanderbilt. With improved play and strong SOS numbers, neither should be discounted if they keep up momentum.  This morning, both have nine (9) Top 100 wins and Top 20 schedules.  In fact, Vandy owns the nation’s No. 5 overall schedule and No. 1 non-conference SOS.  Historically, such numbers have given teams a little more leeway when it comes to losses.  The question is exactly how much?  A team with 15 losses has never received an invitation (unless winning their conference tourney).

Editor’s note:  A reader noted my original statistic was derived pre-2011 data, which is correct.  It used to be rare  for 14-loss teams to receive at-large bids (prior to 2011, it only happened six times).  More recently, in 2011, as an example, five teams received at-large bids with 14 losses.  Sorry for the confusion. Read more…