Bracketology: Baylor leads countdown to Selection Sunday

With the Super Bowl behind us, we look ahead toward Selection Sunday.

Bracketology

As the final month of the regular season begins, Baylor continues to lead our projected Field of 68.  The Bears cruised through December and January without a scratch and haven’t lost since November 8.  While it’s too early to begin throwing the word “lock” around, Baylor is in prime position to be one of this year’s No. 1 seeds when the Selection Committee reveals its bracket.

It’s looking more and more like Kansas will be in the mix again, too – along with both Gonzaga and San Diego State.  The Bulldogs and Aztecs will be favored in most if not all of their remaining games, with SDSU showcasing a perfect 22-0 record.

Bracketology: Butler reaches top line

If you’re joining us following the end of college football, welcome back!  If you’re simply checking in, here’s the latest …

It’s been a monumental two-month journey for Butler.  Picked to finish near the bottom of the Big East standings, the Bulldogs have instead vaulted to an impressive 15-1 record, including nine wins against Quadrants 1 and 2 of the NCAA’s NET ratings.  If you’re into other analytical metrics, KenPom ranks Butler fourth, BPI fifth and SOR (Strength of Record) second as of this posting.

Bracketology

Of course, challenges never end.  Butler next hosts Seton Hall at Hinkle Fieldhouse before embarking on a road swing through DePaul and Villanova.

As for the other No. 1 seeds, the Baylor Bandwagon is filling up quickly.  The Bears swept a pair of road games at Texas Tech and Kansas last week, vaulting them to the No. 1 overall seed in today’s bracket.  Gonzaga remains top Dawg in the West with Duke holding as the Beast of the East.

 

Bracketology: Virginia leads as March returns

A year ago, the Virginia Cavaliers were in the exact same position – sitting atop the college basketball world as king’s of Bracketology.  Today, as March awaits, UVA is back, leading the latest Field of 68.

Bracketology   |   Seed List

Duke’s seed status will be heavily debated in the Selection Committee room if questions about Zion Williamson’s availability remain unanswered over the next two weeks.  When Selection Sunday arrives, the Committee will have to evaluate the Blue Devils based upon the team anticipated to take the floor in the NCAA tournament.  Given that Williamson’s injury status is day-to-day, we’re working under the assumption that he will, in fact, return at some point.  Time will tell.

The race for No. 1 seeds is far from over.  Kentucky and Tennessee play again this weekend.  Michigan State and Michigan meet again.  Duke has another matchup with North Carolina.

And just for fun, March begins tomorrow.

Seed List: Breaking down the top line

Who’s the best team in college basketball?  It’s a tough question, with four or five terrific options.  Who’s the team with the best resume among those five?  Figuring that out was the goal of a deliberate break-down early this morning.

How did it turn out?  The biggest debate was actually between teams four and five, in other words, the last No. 1 seed and the top No. 2 seed.  In this case, those teams were Virginia and Michigan.

Seed List

Ultimately, Michigan State moved to the first position.  The Spartans have a group-best six road wins, lead the nation’s No. 2 NET-rated Conference, have five wins against the currently projected at-large field and rank No. 1 against the Strength of Record.  MSU also has 11 wins against NET Groups 1/2 – including nine  against Group 1.  Note: the last NET rankings available at the time of publication was through Wednesday’s games (1/23).

Bracketology: Michigan State gets its due

Michigan State has completed a near two-month stretch of perfection, last losing at Louisville on November 27.  The Spartans’ run includes an impressive 8-0 start in the Big Ten and a 5-0 road record since that loss to the Cardinals.  Add in an impressive 7-2 mark against Group 1 (NET ratings) and MSU has a solid top-seed profile.

Bracketology   |   Seed List

In the interest of full disclosure, we have seven teams with viable one-seed resumes, and Kentucky is quickly building its case, too.  The race is on.

The middle and lower-end of the bracket remains littered with mix of average to questionable profiles.  That’s pretty typical for this time of year.  With Buffalo’s recent loss, Bowling Green earns the Mid-American’s automatic bid this morning; bumping the Bulls into the at-large pool.  That takes away one at-large spot from someone else.