Bracketology: Let the Bubble race begin

As the NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee convenes today to begin its selection and seeding process, a host of bubble teams begin fighting for a few remaining spots in the bracket.  It’s a potentially big day for early participants in the ACC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12.  To view the latest, visit Bracket Games.

Bracketology

This morning, three teams from the Big Ten are scheduled to arrive in Dayton.  While this would not be ideal for the Committee (as it would require two Big10 teams to play head-to-head) it is possible and within the bracketing rules.  The Committee would not (at least in theory) adjust the seed list for the sole purpose of accommodating the removal of three teams from one league in the First Four.  The good news: the current status is unlikely to remain in place and could look different tomorrow morning.

Alabama, Kansas and Houston should be locked into No. 1 seeds.  The final order may not be finalized.  It’s Purdue and UCLA with dibs on the final No. 1 slot.  Purdue remains in place today, but a slip by the Boilermakers would open the door for the Bruins.

Seed List: Penn State stays alive, Auburn on Bubble

Penn State existed Evanston with a victory at Northwestern.  Auburn fell in overtime at Alabama.  For Penn State, it’s a victory that not only keeps the Nittany Lions at-larges hopes in tact, it moves them back among the first four OUT, heading into Thursday.  While Auburn’s loss doesn’t “hurt” the Tigers, it’s a missed opportunity that could linger.  Now just 2-9 against Quad 1 opponents, Auburn feels somewhere on the bubble heading into the final weekend of the regular season.

Seed List

Elsewhere, Pittsburgh absorbed a Quad 3 loss at Notre Dame.  The Panthers finish at Miami.  A loss in Coral Gables would add a little extra angst to Pitt’s ACC tournament.

TCU held off Texas at home and looks in line to end up as a 4-5 seed with a healthy squad.  Xavier notched a solid road win at Providence to anchor their position.  Creighton took out some frustration on Georgetown.  And the bottom of the six seed line remains volatile and uncertain.

Seed List: Kansas moves up, Bubble gets new faces

Perhaps it was inevitable.  Kansas has jumped Houston on the seed list.  While one position may not seem like much, in this case, it’s huge for KU.  By surpassing Houston, Kansas is in position to claim the top spot in the Midwest Region, routing the Jayhawks through Des Moines and Kansas City.

Seed List

Along the bubble, Boise State added a meaningful victory over San Diego State.  It could end up being a victory that solidifies a bracket position for the Broncos.  North Carolina State lost a competitive game at Duke.  While the result itself is fine, the loss leaves NC State with just two wins against the projected at-large field, both at home (Duke, Miami).  In an odd turn of events, the Wolfpack would benefit from a late North Carolina surge – along with a win or two at the ACC tournament.  NC State currently has a 2-6 mark against Quad 1.

Auburn, meanwhile, is 2-8 against Quad 1 and has slowly drifted toward the bubble, too.  The difference for the Tigers includes Quad 2 victories over Mississippi State and Missouri, which would give Auburn four wins against the field.  Auburn also played a significantly better non-conference schedule.

Both NC State and Auburn remain on the right side of the bubble.  Forecasting an eventual slot in the Field of 68 just isn’t as clear as it used to be – especially with some significant bubble games yet to be played this week.

Seed List: ASU enters as OSU falls; Nevada slides

First, let’s welcome Arizona State.  The Sun Devils climb into the final at-large spot this morning following Oklahoma State’s home loss to Baylor.  Now it’s up to ASU to hold its position.  They finish with road trips to UCLA and USC.  A split would be a good way to wrap up the regular season.

Seed List

Think you have college basketball figured out?  Think again.  Monday is a perfect example: West Virginia entered its tilt at Iowa State having won just twice on the road.  Until recently, Iowa State rarely lost at home.  So the outcome fits, right?  WVU picked up a road win in Ames and ISU dropped its third home game of the season (and has lost 3 of 4 at home).  It’s been a rather dramatic fade for the Cyclones, losers of four straight and six of seven.  It could get even worse this weekend as ISU travels to Waco to take on Baylor ahead of the Big 12 tournament.

Then we have Nevada.  Nicely positioned for an at-large bid.  Well, that position regressed a bit following Monday’s surprising loss at Wyoming.  It would be a good idea for the Wolf Pack to beat UNLV this weekend and avoid entering the Mountain West tournament with a reduced seed line position.

Tuesday’s Bubble Impact Games:

Bracketology: Interesting twists on the Bubble

We’ll save the No. 1-seed ordering debate for another day.  Right now, some interesting twists have developed along the bubble heading into the final week of the regular season.

Bracketology

Once buried, both Michigan and Texas Tech have climbed enough rungs to find themselves among the Next Four Out this morning.  The Wolverines posted a road win at Rutgers Thursday night to add a little more punch.  If it feels like we’ve seen this before, it’s probably because we have some deja vu when it comes to the Maize and Blue.  Late-season charges seem to be a mantra.  While Texas Tech’s non-conference schedule remains a significant hurdle, additional Quad 1 opportunities await in the Big 12.  Climbing or fading are both yet possible.