QT: Maui and Mississippi State

Creighton and San Diego State posted key wins at the Maui Invitational on Monday.  The Bluejays passed their first test of the season against Texas Tech.  The Aztecs took down Ohio State, adding the Buckeyes to an early victory list that includes BYU and Stanford.  Today: Creighton squares off against Arkansas; SDSU gets Arizona.

Meanwhile, Texas Tech is now in an unenviable spot.  By losing to Creighton, the Red Raiders face Louisville and the winner of Cincinnati-Ohio State on Wednesday.  If it’s UC, TTU could end up facing two team with losing records.

Mississippi State, the final at-large team selection in Monday’s (way too early) bracket projection, edged Marquette to move to 5-0 on the season.  MSU’s other notable win came against Akron in Philadelphia; the Zips throttled Western Kentucky Monday in Grand Cayman.  The Bulldogs could well be 10-0 before their schedule picks up.

Bracketology: Stretch run for No. 1 seeds

As we head into the first weekend of February, Auburn and Gonzaga are the strongest bets to retain No. 1 seed status a month from now.  That leaves two positions open for the stretch run.  This morning, those spots are occupied by Baylor and Kansas.  While possible, it’s unlikely both ultimately end up on the top line together.

Bracketology
Seed List

Who are the other contenders?  Let’s take a quick peek (in no particular order):

Purdue – The Boilermakers own favorable metrics and performance numbers, and are the loss at Rutgers away from being on the No. 1 line today.  The Big Ten also allows for plenty of Quad 1/2 opportunities between now and Selection Sunday.

QT: Big 12 title race now three teams wide

If you’re a spotter on the oval, the Big 12 title race went three teams wide following Texas Tech’s win at Baylor on Tuesday.  Fresh off a home victory over Kansas, the Red Raiders pulled alongside the Bears and Jayhawks heading toward the next turn.  While TTU has a quirky resume (all but one of its games are either Quad 1 or Quad 4), beating KU and Baylor in a span of four days is impressive.  Following three losses in four games, Iowa State is slightly behind, but let’s not dismiss the Cyclones, either.  We have a long way to go.

Switching to NASCAR central, Auburn beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The Tigers are likely headed for a No. 1 seed in the next bracket; their lone loss is in overtime to Connecticut in November.

Additional Quick Takes …

• Kansas needed every second to hold off Iowa State in Lawrence.
• The other unbeaten, USC, lost at Stanford.  The Trojans’ profile is hard to manage.  Why?  USC’s best wins are currently San Diego State and Washington State.
• Illinois avoided a tough loss at Nebraska, scoring 50 points in the second half.
• Texas AM moved to 13-2 overall after beating Ole Miss.  Following a potentially tricky trip to Missouri, the Aggies get Kentucky at home, followed by road trips to Arkansas and LSU.
• It feels like every team in the ACC – other than Duke – is on the bubble.  Florida State edged Miami in Tallahassee after taking care of Louisville last week.  Next up:  FSU hosts Duke and plays three of four on the road.

Bracket Bits: NC State, Texas Tech, and Tuesday’s Bubble Games

Both NC State and Texas Tech missed opportunities to score huge road wins on Monday – which basically means the Wolfpack and Texas Tech are treading water, hoping the ripples stay small.  Quick takes on both …

NC State – The Wolfpack are 18-12 with notable wins over Duke, Wisconsin and Virginia. Their issue is eight losses to non-tournament teams, including being swept by Georgia Tech and UNC, along with a loss at Boston College.  NCSU closes with a must win against Wake Forest ahead of the ACC tournament.
Texas Tech – The Red Raiders are also 18-12 with notable wins over Louisville and West Virginia (along with Texas and Oklahoma).  Their biggest advantages are a strong NET Rating and only three losses to non-tournament teams (and none in Quad 3).  It’s worth noting, however, that TTU has eight wins against Quad 4 – with seven of those being home games against teams rated 235 or worse (as of the posting).  If the Committee digs deep, TTU is now 10-12 against Quads 1-3, with an effective record of 11-12.  Tech closes at home against Kansas.

Bracket Bits: Trouble brewing for Texas Tech?

As March arrives, so does a question about the at-large status of Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders lost at home to Texas on Saturday, leaving them with some potentially risky profile numbers.  These include a 3-8 record against Quadrant 1, a 7-11 mark against Quads 1/2, and a sub-.500 total against Quads 1-3 (10-11). TTU’s remaining eight wins are against Quad 4, with seven of those coming at home against teams ranked 235 or worse in the NET.

And … the next week is no picnic.  Texas Tech travels to Baylor before ending the season at home against Kansas.  What if the Red Raiders lose both and head to the Big 12 tournament at 18-13?  Solid NET number(s) or not, that’s tricky business.

The good news: TTU’s final two games are also a blessing in disguise.  Winning could undo much, if not all, of the angst heading to Kansas City.