Building the Field

Building the Field highlights teams currently projected to be In the Field, teams who are currently In the Mix (under consideration), and teams with Work To Do at the time of the update. Noted data credited to Warren Nolan.

UPDATED: March 13  |  6:00 a.m. ET

Total Spots (68): Number of teams in the Field.

Automatic Bids (32): AQ’s are awarded to conference tournament champions:
Drake (MVC), Stetson (ASun), Morehead State (OVC), Samford (Southern), James Madison (SBelt), Longwood (Big South), Charleston (Coastal), Oakland (Horizon), Saint Mary’s (WCC), South Dakota State (Summit), Wagner (NEC)

• NCAA Locks (30): Teams who should be locked into bids at the time of publication
• NCAA Teams (3): Teams projected to earn an at-large bids
• In The Mix (24): Teams that currently project to be under consideration for a bid
• Work to Do (5): Teams on the at-large board who have work to do to be In the Mix.

Atlantic 10
Dayton finished its A10 regular season at 14-4. Combined with a solid non-conference effort – and all around good metrics – the Flyers should have locked up a bid. Richmond will get a look if they reach the A10 title game.
NCAA Locks: Dayton NCAA Teams: In the Mix: Richmond Work to do:
Richmond | The Spiders ended up sharing the league title with Loyola-Chicago, which adds a slight ding to an otherwise solid A10 campaign. Richmond has a win over Dayton, a 5-6 mark vs. Quadrants 1/2 and a 15-9 record against Quads 1-3. Metrics are a bit low, so the Spiders need a long stay in Brooklyn to avoid falling out of contention.

Atlantic Coast (ACC)
UNC, Duke and Clemson have locked up bids. Virginia is wobbling and likely resides somewhere along the cutline. Pittsburgh, Virginia and Wake Forest are trying to keep hopes alive.
NCAA Locks: Clemson, Duke, North Carolina NCAA Teams: In the Mix: Virginia, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest Work to do: Syracuse, Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh | The Panthers’ NET rating and predictive metrics suggest consideration. The Panthers’ results metrics are less inviting, as is a non-conference SOS north of 340. What Pitt does have is a road win at Duke – which could end up being their only victory against the field if Virginia sinks. Pitt opens its ACC tournament on Thursday and probably needs at least two wins. Virginia | Virginia missed its chances against Norton Carolina and Duke. That mean’s there’s likely some work ahead. While UVA has a nice collection of wins, the Cavs’ best is a one-point road win at Clemson. Another note: Their losses have often been lopsided and rather ugly. If the “eye test” matters, those results could sway a decision in the wrong direction. Wake Forest | Metrics aside, Wake is 3-11 away from Winston-Salem and resides at just 19-12 on the season. After beating Pittsburgh and Duke at home, the Deacons lost three straight against non-tournament teams. Beating Clemson in the regular-season finale at least gives them a puncher’s chance. Can the Demon Deacons make an ACC run?

American Athletic (AAC)
Florida Atlantic isn’t a lock (yet), but the Owls profile is much steadier after beating Memphis to close their regular season. As long as FAU avoids a major disaster, odds fall in the Owls’ favor. While South Florida’s non-conference resume is troubling, USF won the league in dominant fashion and deserves a look. Memphis has an uphill climb but could easily pull off a late rally.
NCAA Locks: NCAA Teams: Florida Atlantic In the Mix: Memphis, South Florida Work to do:
Memphis | The Tigers fell short on the road at Florida Atlantic, which means they need a trip to the AAC title game to stay in the at-large picture (most likely). It is worth mentioning that 16 of Memphis’ 22 wins are against teams in Quadrants 3 and 4, and the home loss to Rice is a rather ugly outlier. South Florida | USF won the AAC in rather dominant fashion. What hurt, potentially, is only playing FAU and Memphis once, limiting Quad 1/2 opportunities. A porous non-conference slate is an issue – and two early Quad 4 losses are issues, too. The Bulls deserve a look. How close a look will depend on how far they advance in the AAC tournament.

Big East
Beyond Connecticut, Creighton and Marquette, how many bids can the Big East get? The answer could still be anywhere from three to six – reaching seven is all but impossible now.
NCAA Locks: Connecticut, Creighton, Marquette NCAA Teams: In the Mix: Providence, Seton Hall, St. John’s, Villanova Work to do:
Providence | The Friars likely need a minimum of two wins in New York. Three would be better. Seton Hall | The Pirates own five Quad 1 wins, including Connecticut. They made it past DePaul and now face St. John’s to open BE tournament play in what feels like a potentially pivotal game for both teams. SHU might be able to withstand a loss, but a win makes life a lot easier. St. John’s | St. John’s avoided disaster to close the season and probably sits right along the cutline. Next up, the Johnnies battle Seton Hall in a critical game that could help swing the pendulum one way or the other. Villanova | Much like Providence, the Wildcats need at least two wins in New York, and probably three, to feel better about their chances.

Big Ten (B10)
The question is whether the league can maintain it’s current six-bid status (or perhaps add a 7th spot).
NCAA Locks: Illinois, Northwestern, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin NCAA Teams: In the Mix: Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State Work to do: Indiana
Iowa | The Hawkeyes’ late surge keeps them in the conversation, but missing both chances against Illinois – especially at home to close the season – leaves them more work to do in Minneapolis. First up, a date with fellow late-bloomer Ohio State. It’s most likely a winner moves forward and the loser falls short scenario. Michigan State | The Spartans have put themselves squarely back on the bubble and now face a critical Big Ten tournament opener against Minnesota. At just 18-13 overall, closing at 18-14 might end up being costly. Assuming MSU gets past the Gophers, beating Purdue would seal it; but that’s a tough ask. If there’s a potentially saving grace, it’s Michigan State’s metrics – which remain strong across the board. Testing the “metrical theory” by losing to Minnesota wouldn’t be a good idea, though. Ohio State | Much like Iowa, the Buckeyes are on a late-season flurry. Will that be enough to overcome an overall poor season within the league? The answer begins Thursday when OSU takes on Iowa. The winner keeps their hopes alive; the loser is probably finished. Assuming they can take down the Hawkeyes, OSU would have a chance to further its case against Illinois. What Ohio State does have – that not many bubble teams will – are victories against Purdue and Alabama.

Big 12
The Big 12 is going to send a nice number of teams to the NCAA tournament. Whether that number reaches 9 is very much in flux. Beating each other up has a way of interfering with the equation.
NCAA Locks: Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech NCAA Teams: Texas In the Mix: Kansas State, Oklahoma ,TCU Work to do:
Oklahoma | It’s amazing how things work out sometimes. Oklahoma and TCU are very similar in a lot of ways. Voila – they play each other in the Big 12 tournament opener. It’s not a lose and go-home scenario, necessarily, but the winner is going to rest a lot easier Saturday night. TCU | See above. The only addition here is TCU’s 320+ non-conference SOS, which could give the Committee a reason to dismiss the Horned Frogs should they end up along the cutline; we’ve seen it before. The fact that they are one of only three teams to beat Houston this year could also end up being a golden nugget. Kansas State | While KSU probably has a better overall profile than OU or TCU, its NET rating and other metrics suggest they are clearly in third place amongst the group. The first step toward climbing upward is beating Texas on Wednesday.

Missouri Valley (MVC)
Drake won the league’s automatic bid in St. Louis. The long wait begins for Indiana State.
NCAA Locks: Drake (AQ) NCAA Teams: In the Mix: Indiana State Work to do:
Indiana State | The Sycamores finished their season at 27-6. All they can do is sit, watch and hope things break the right way. Rooting against bid thieves is Plan 1A.

Mountain West (MWC)
The Mountain West has some good teams and up to six bids remains possible.
NCAA Locks: Boise State, Nevada, San Diego State, Utah State NCAA Teams: Colorado State In the Mix: New Mexico Work to do: UNLV
New Mexico | While there’s a lot to like about the Lobos, they didn’t accomplish much outside the Mountain West and own a rather unsightly home loss to Air Force. Against their best competition (Quad 1), they are 2-7. Could a sweep of Nevada be a tipping point in their favor? Perhaps. One thing is pretty clear: UNM has to beat Air Force to open MWC tournament play.

Pac 12
Arizona remains a No. 1 seed contender, although they have work to do beat out Tennessee or North Carolina for the final spot. Washington State should be good to go. Can the league can get a third or fourth spot? It’s still unclear – and could well be determined during the final Pac-12 tournament.
NCAA Locks: Arizona, Washington State NCAA Teams: In the Mix: Colorado, Utah Work to do: Oregon
Colorado | The Buffaloes remain a metrical darling despite having just one win – Washington State at home – over a currently projected tournament team. That lone win also coincides with three sub-100 NET losses. The good news: CU is playing its best basketball of the season, somewhat do to a healthier roster. They open Pac-12 play on Thursday. Utah | Utah’s metrics are less inclining than Colorado’s. Utah also hasn’t been a particularly good road team (2-9), and went 2-2 in neutral games, beating Wake Forest. Utah opens its final exams against Arizona State in what feels like a must-win game.

Southeastern (SEC)
Depth is the name of the game – which can be both a blessing and a curse.
NCAA Locks: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee NCAA Teams: In the Mix: Mississippi State, Texas AM Work to do:
Mississippi State | Depending on where you look, the Bulldogs are somewhere between the cutline and the last few teams with a proverbial bye (or just above the First Four). Most of MSU’s best work has come at home, although the Dawgs were good in early neutral-court games – beating Northwestern and Washington State. The negatives are just six wins against Quads 1/2 and an early home loss to Quad 4 Southern. Texas AM | The Aggies roll into Nashville on a three-game winning streak and fresh off a 26-point pounding of Ole Miss in Oxford. On cue, the Aggies get another crack at the Rebels to open SEC tournament play. Could be blessing or a curse. Heading into that game, TAMU is squarely back in the bubble picture – and features a host of wins not many other bubble teams can present: Tennessee, Iowa State, and Kentucky, most notably. The Aggies have 11 wins against Quad 1 and 2, and if it weren’t for an ugly Quad 3 record, all would be good. If big wins carry the day, and TAMU can beat Ole Miss again, there’s at least a decent chance things fall in line.

West Coast (WCC)
Gonzaga’s late surge has likely locked the Zags into the Field of 68. While light on high-end wins, recent victories at Kentucky and Saint Mary’s strengthened the Zags’ already favorable metrics. It’s hard to see the Committee leaving the Bulldogs at home and a single-digit seed is more likely than not at this point.
NCAA Locks: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s (AQ) NCAA Teams: In the Mix: Work to do:

Best of the Rest
This is where you will find additional teams from lesser leagues who have an opportunity to be under-consideration for NCAA bids.
NCAA Locks: James Madison (AQ) NCAA Teams: In the Mix: Grand Canyon, Princeton Work to do:
Grand Canyon | It’s never a great idea to leave a decision in someone else’s hands. If that happens to Grand Canyon, they do offer a win over San Diego State, a close loss to South Carolina, and some acceptable, but not great metrics. They are light on Quad 1-2 wins with just three. Princeton | Princeton has not played a Quad 1 game, so there’s basically no record to compare. What they do have is a Top 30 Strength of Record (SOR) metric and some other favorable numbers. Whether wins over Duquesne and Rutgers outside the league would be enough? It’s all how the Committee might look at the numbers.