Tourney Quick Takes: Region-by-Region

Although Noon tips on Thursday will always signal the start of the NCAA tournament for me, it says here that games start on Tuesday (tonight).  With that in mind, rather than offer specific picks (sure to go wrong), here are some quick takeaways related to the bracket – region by region:

EAST REGION – Boston
From an analytics standpoint, the East is the toughest – and it’s not particularly close.  All four top seeds (Connecticut, Iowa State, Auburn and Illinois) rank in the Top 10 at KenPom and Top 6 in ELO.  It’s obvious the Selection Committee didn’t factor in predictive metrics while creating their seed list.

Favorite: Connecticut.  The defending national champs are back for a reprise, trying to become the first repeat championship since Florida in 2006-07.   Other than some injuries, little has derailed the Huskies.  They have everything needed to repeat.

Best Chances for an early-round upset:

• Drake over Washington State: The Bulldogs took down Nevada this year and beat a good Indiana State team twice. Expect a close one.  Drake’s Tucker DeVries can be tough matchup.
• Duquesne over BYU:  The Dukes are playing their best basketball at the right time.  They will also look to control pace.  If this turns into a half-court game, it could get tight.  BYU fires a lot of 3-pointers; there’s always a risk of going cold.
• UAB over San Diego State: Given SDSU’s physicality, chances are less here. UAB was my preseason pick to win the American and there’s talent on the floor.  If UAB can speed the game up, they have a fighters’ chance to knock off the Aztecs.

Four teams you’ll likely see in Boston: Connecticut, Auburn, Illinois, Iowa State
Had Auburn been in any other region (instead of opposite Connecticut), the Tigers would be trendy pick to reach the Final Four.  Auburn is Top 10 in both offense and defense at KenPom.

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WEST REGION – Los Angeles
North Carolina heads west as the No. 1 seed.  The good news, this is the second weakest region based on the Top 4 seeds’ KenPom ratings (Midwest is one point behind).  Alabama is most interesting.  At their best, the Crimson Tide can literally outscore teams, but their defense has been atrocious.  If Alabama gets hot, the Tide could easily make a run.  They could also exit early.

Favorite: Arizona – for geography if nothing else. Much like Auburn, the Wildcats boast Top 10 offensive and defensive rankings at KenPom.  If North Carolina is focused on its defense, then the Tar Heels have a good chance to advance, too.

Best chances for an early-round upset:

• Nevada over Dayton – For me, these teams are seeded backward, based on season results.  The Wolf Pack own a win over TCU and six against teams in this year’s tournament.  Dayton does not have a single victory over an at-large team in the field.
• New Mexico over Clemson – Truly a toss up.  Clemson should have enough power to win this, but the Tigers didn’t look great losing to Notre Dame, Wake Forest and Boston College down the stretch.  New Mexico comes in riding a wave of success and perhaps with a chip on its shoulder knowing they would have missed the tournament had they not won the MWC tourney.
• Charleston over Alabama – In what should be an up-and-down shootout, if Charleston gets hot from three and Alabama is not, well, we know how that story could end.
• Grand Canyon over St. Mary’s – GCU enters with 28 wins, including a victory over San Diego State, a team the Gaels lost against early in the season.  If there’s a caveat, SMC started slowly but finished strong, so take those early results with the appropriate measure.

Four teams you’ll likely see in Los Angeles: North Carolina, Alabama, Baylor, Arizona.
Ultimately, I think it comes down to Arizona and North Carolina.  Would it shock me if either lost in the Sweet 16 or before?  No.  At least one region always blows up.  This could be the one.

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SOUTH REGION – Dallas
Houston is the No. 1 seed.  The Big 12 championship game notwithstanding, the Cougars have also been one of the most – if not the most – consistent team start to finish.  While not elite offensively (Houston ranks 17th at KenPom), they rank second for defensive efficiency.  They guard like there’s no tomorrow.  The wildcard is Kentucky.  No roster is more talented.  The Wildcats rank Top 5 for offensive efficiency and can score at all three levels.  The issue?  Defense, where they rank 108th.  If the latter improves enough to matter, there’s not a scarier team in the South.

Favorite: Houston – the Cougars are tough to bet against because they guard and rebound.  But their path to Phoenix has some potential road bumps – including Duke, Kentucky and Marquette, especially if Tyler Kolek is healthy enough to be productive.

Best chances for an early-round upset:

• James Madison over Wisconsin – The Dukes opened their season by beating Michigan State in East Lansing and then went on to post 30 DI wins this season. The risks are two-fold … 1) JMU hasn’t beaten a Top 100 team since; 2) Wisconsin has found its Mojo and won’t be in letdown mode after dropping a close one to Illinois in Minneapolis.
• NC State over Texas Tech – It’s hard to know if the Wolfpack can stay hot after a few days away from the ACC tournament.  Sometimes, the hot hand is tough to beat, though.
• Vermont over Duke – The Catamounts have won 19 of 20 games and will play at a much slower pace.  It’s a classic set-up.  Duke is clearly more talented, but if Vermont can keep it close and make it possession-by-possession late into the second half, favorites tend to tighten up.
• Oakland over Kentucky – The risk here is largely due to youth and inexperience versus age and experience.  Oakland will try to slow the game down and make it a grinder.  If they succeed, then it becomes a quagmire.  With the depth of scoring available to UK, it’s a long shot, but we’ve seen stranger things happen.

Four teams you’ll likely see in Dallas: Houston, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Marquette
One thing about this year’s Big Ten, it’s not your slow-paced snore-fest we’ve seen before.  Wisconsin and Illinois both topped out more than 85 points in the Big Ten title game.  Duke hasn’t beaten a Top 40 NET opponent since edging Clemson 72-71 at the end of January.

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MIDWEST REGION – Detroit
Purdue is trying to become this year’s Virginia – bouncing back from losing as a No. 1 seed to winning it all the next season.  Ironically, if there’s a stumbling block, it could be the Boilermakers’ defense.  It’s been good, but not elite.  In another interesting twist, Purdue is paired with No. 2 seed Tennessee, which is trying to exercise its own March demons.  Then there’s Kansas, whose potential largely depends upon the health of Kevin McCullar, Jr. and Hunter Dickinson.  Both are slated to play.  The question becomes: How effective will they be?

Favorite: Purdue – the Boilermakers have been consistent start to finish and own a strong compilation of victories against other highly-ranked tournament foes.  It also helps that – at least based on analytics – Purdue has the easiest path to Phoenix.

Best chances for an early-round upset:

• McNeese over Gonzaga – There’s nothing fluky about the Cowboys, who won non-conference road games at VCU, UAB and Michigan.  They want to play fast and turn you over.  This is an athletic team with an aggressive style.   If they can force Gonzaga into turnovers, it could be a barn-burner.
• Samford over Kansas – While the Bulldogs did not fare well against high-end competition this season, if Kansas isn’t at full strength, there’s a potential opening.  Keep a close eye on the injury reports.
• Oregon over South Carolina – Before the season, Oregon was a projected tournament team.  In the 20 games N’Faly Dante has played in this season, he’s averaged 16.2 points and 8.8 rebounds for the Ducks, both lead the team.  He’s back and Oregon knocked off both Arizona and Colorado to win the Pac-12 tournament.

Four teams you’re likely to see in Detroit: Purdue, Gonzaga, Creighton, Tennessee
In this case, if Gonzaga can get past McNeese, the Bulldogs could face a compromised Kansas team that hasn’t played its best basketball in over a month.  Creighton is a Top 25 team (via KenPom) on both offense and defense.  While Purdue could get tested in Round 2, it’s hard to see the Boilermakers falling short of the Sweet 16 again.