Bracketology

64-thumbWelcome to Bracketville’s home for Bracketology. This is where you will find bracket projections and seedings for the 2010 NCAA Tournament. We use current data, key wins and losses, power data, strength of schedule, and overall evaluation along with team expectations and future projections to develop the weekly bracket. It’s not strictly based on if the season ended today.

BRACKET Update: Monday, February 8  (scroll down for the full bracket).  Records reflect games against Division I teams only.  Note: Teams in CAPS are projected as the automatic bid unless the team generally goes by an abbreviation (VCU, BYU, etc).

Next Update: Monday, February 15.

BRACKET PROJECTION …

EASTSyracuse   SOUTHHouston
Milwaukee   Buffalo
1) KENTUCKY (22-1)                             1) SYRACUSE (23-1)  
16)  VERMONT (17-8)   16)  Lehigh vs. Jackson State   
8) Baylor (16-5)   8) Missouri (17-6)
9) Charlotte (18-5)   9) Xavier (16-7)
     
San Jose   Jacksonville
5) Pittsburgh (17-6)   5) Georgia Tech (16-6)
12) UTEP (17-5)   12) Illinois (16-8)              
4) Wake Forest (16-5)   4) Tennessee (18-4)
13) KENT STATE (16-7)   13) SIENA (20-4)
     
New Orleans   Spokane
6) GONZAGA (17-4)   6) UNLV (18-4)
11) Clemson (16-7)   11) St. Mary’s (20-3)
3) Ohio State (18-6)   3) Wisconsin (18-5)
14) OAKLAND (16-8)   14) PACIFIC (15-7)
     
Buffalo   Oklahoma City
7) Texas A&M (16-6)   7) Rhode Island (19-3)
10) Dayton (16-6)   10) Marquette (15-8)
2) West Virginia (19-3)   2) Kansas State (18-4)
15) MORGAN STATE (17-7)   15) WEBER STATE (13-8)
     
MIDWEST - St. Louis   WEST – Salt Lake City
Oklahoma City   Providence
1) KANSAS (22-1)   1) Villanova (20-2)
16) JACKSONVILLE (13-10)   16) ROBERT MORRIS (16-8)
8) Richmond (18-6)   8) Florida (17-6)
9) Maryland (15-6)   9) CORNELL (18-3)
     
Spokane   San Jose
5) Vanderbilt (16-5)   5) BYU (20-3)
12) Louisville (15-8)   12) CALIFORNIA (15-8)
4) New Mexico (21-3)   4) Texas (19-4)
13) UTAH STATE (17-6)                           13) MURRAY STATE (20-3)                       
     
New Orleans   Jacksonville
6) BUTLER (20-4)   6) TEMPLE (19-5)
11) OLD DOMINION (18-7)   11) Oklahoma State (17-6)          
3) MICHIGAN STATE (19-5)   3) DUKE (19-4)
14) SAM HOUSTON (12-5)   14) CHARLESTON (16-8)
     
Providence   Milwaukee
7) Florida State (16-6)   7) NORTHERN IOWA (21-2)
10) UAB (19-4)   10) Mississippi (17-6)
2) Georgetown (17-5)   2) Purdue (19-3)
15) COASTAL CAROLINA (17-4)   15) ARKANSAS STATE (12-9)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NOTES on the BRACKET: Kansas remains the No. 1 overall seed – followed by Syracuse, Kentucky and Villanova.  Syracuse hosts the play-in game because it’s a Friday-Sunday site Buffalo).  It would be Midwest vs. West | East vs. South.   Next 4 S-Curve spots are … Michigan State, Georgetown, Purdue, Kansas State.

Last Five teams in (at large):  Illinois, Oklahoma State, St. Mary’s, UTEP, Louisville

First Five teams out (at large):  Notre Dame, VCU, South Florida, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech

Next in Line … Minnesota, Northwestern, Washington, Northeastern, Wichita State, Tulsa, Virginia, Texas Tech, San Diego State, Mississippi State, William & Mary, Oklahoma, Memphis, Connecticut, Louisiana Tech, Arizona State

Moving in (at-large): Illinois |  Moving out: Cincinnati

New Arrivals (auto bids): Lehigh (Patriot)

Bracket adjustments: Several one-line adjustments to a team’s “true seed” this bracket … Baylor (up), Mississippi (down), Illinois (down), St. Mary’s (up), Xavier (down), Cornell (up). 

Regional placement: Syracuse cannot be placed in the East (host).  BYU has to be placed in the West or East because they must play in Thursday-Saturday locations.  San Jose is a Thursday-Saturday First-Round site, too.

Here is the team breakdown by Conference …

Big East (7): Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville

Big 12 (7): Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma State

ACC (6):  Duke, Florida State, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Maryland

Atlantic 10 (6): Temple, Rhode Island, Xavier, Richmond, Charlotte, Dayton

SEC (5): Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Vanderbilt, Florida

Big Ten (5): Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Illinois

Mountain West (3): New Mexico, UNLV, BYU

Conference USA (2): UAB, UTEP

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

Pac 10 (1): California

Colonial (1): Old Dominion

Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa

Horizon (1): Butler

Auto Bid conference champions … Siena (MAAC), Arkansas State (SunBelt), Utah State (WAC), Kent State (Mid American), Pacific (Big West), Charleston (Southern), Oakland (Summit), Murray State (Ohio Valley), Lehigh (Patriot), Vermont (America East), Cornell (Ivy), Weber State (Big Sky), Sam Houston (Southland), Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Coastal Carolina (Big South), Robert Morris (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Jackson State (SWAC).

  1. January 4, 2010 at 3:37 pm | #1

    Byu- a 12 seed?? Come on. Watch what they do to UNLV and UTEP this week, then get back to me. People are all over the board on this team from a 3 seed all the way to your 12 seed. Proves that many sites are not following the MTN conference outside of New Mexico because of the lame #%*@ MTN TV channel that no one gets.

    Yeah, they have a weak non conference schedule but then the power conferences do not want to play a home and home game with BYU. Just like Football, politics as always. Bench and defense make them a final 16 team.

    • bracketguy
      January 4, 2010 at 8:35 pm | #2

      Chris, Thanks for your interest. Quick thoughts … BYU is certainly a capable NCAA team or they wouldn’t be in the projection. At the moment, however, the Cougars have given us no concrete reason to consider them a solid at-large team – thus a low seed. BYU has played the No. 249 non-conference schedule; and 11 of its 13 wins are against teams ranked below 100 in the RPI. To date, BYU has not played or beaten an NCAA projected team. BYU’s seed will also be flexible because the Cougars will only play at Thursday-Saturday locations; they can be bumped up (or down) for this reason. If the Cougars play well in the Mountain West – especially on the road – expectations (and seeding) will rise.

  2. Jeremy
    January 5, 2010 at 2:48 am | #3

    Wisconsin? 5 seed? Get a life.

    • bracketguy
      January 5, 2010 at 6:47 am | #4

      Given the current climate in the Big 10 (Evan Turner injury, etc), the Badgers have to be viewed as the third best team. Lots of “ifs” ahead. But if Wisconsin finished in a solid third place as expected (to this point), a No. 5 seed would certainly be in line.

  3. January 7, 2010 at 2:42 am | #5

    BYU beat a tough UNLV squad with Fredette sick with strep throat. UTEP on the road will be a tough test on saturday so we will see. Being ranked #23 in the nation makes BYU at least a 6 seed in my book.

    • bracketguy
      January 7, 2010 at 8:01 am | #6

      I may have undervalued BYU in the January 4 bracket. Seedings are very fluid at this point. By the time Selection Sunday rolls around, conference standings are a crucial factor for both selection and seeding. Given that BYU was the third (of three) teams selected from the Mountain West at the time of release, the Cougars were seeded behind UNLV and New Mexico. In a broader picture, however, BYU was only 8 spots lower on the S-curve than the Rebels. They were dropped one line (by bracketing rules) to accommodate a Thursday-Saturday placement in all rounds. BYU might be the best team in a very good Mountain West. If so, they could certain garner a 4-6 seed. As for the AP rankings, they are a nice talking point, but that’s about it. I really don’t see Butler as a Top 25 team – neither is Georgia Tech. But voters have a hard time letting go of expectations. Hope the Mountain West earns four or five bids, Chris. It will help BYU if New Mexico and UNLV continue to play well – and if Arizona State and Arizona show some signs of life in an otherwise below-par Pac-10. Stay in touch – Dave.

  4. randyr
    January 11, 2010 at 12:50 pm | #7

    how much did Washington State’s loss to Oregon factor in their waiting to get in the brackets? basically an error by the refs as seen by everyone outside of the PAC-10 (including the NCAA who released a training note on the error)
    of course, their split in Arizona showed both sides of playing such a young team and would have dropped them down.

    • bracketguy
      January 11, 2010 at 10:10 pm | #8

      No factor, Randy. Washington State hasn’t beaten an NCAA caliber team. Only one of their wins is against a Top 100 RPI team. Much like the SEC in ‘09, the Pac-10 is having a down year. For WSU to claim an at-large bid, they’ll need to put a winning streak together and separate themselves at the top of the conference. At this point there are very few “up” games in the Pac-10. Playing the No. 244-rated non-conference schedule isn’t helping either. Thanks for your interest.

  5. Jeff
    January 11, 2010 at 2:36 pm | #9

    Washington is still in really? why ? 3 straight loses were they weren’t even competing in the games and last place in there divison. why are they in and not even considered one of the last 5 teams in? Northwestern is much more deserving in my opinion at least they have decent wins on there resume.

    • bracketguy
      January 11, 2010 at 9:59 pm | #10

      Jeff, all of this will work itself out. If the projection was based on the season ending Sunday then Washington’s profile would not be NCAA worthy. Even in a weak Pac-10, I expect two teams to make the Field. At this point, Washington still seems most capable of making a run. That’s why I’m projecting them in the field at this point.

  6. Jeff
    January 13, 2010 at 11:05 am | #11

    Ok I understand the future projects, I just don’t see them as making that run, although they are capable Pondexter and Thomas are solid, it just tough to distinguish anyone outside of them in that big rotation they have, but that deepth could be helpful in say an automatic bid for the pac 10 tourny as that is wide open.

  7. dan
    January 19, 2010 at 10:27 pm | #12

    cincinnati cannot play vanderbilt in the first round of the tournament. they already played this year in maui.

    • bracketguy
      January 19, 2010 at 10:45 pm | #13

      Dan … while the NCAA tries to avoid first-round pairings that involve rematches, it’s not a hard and fast rule. If such match-ups are necessary to avoid conference conflicts or other bracketing rules (appropriate seedline adjustments), they are allowed. That said, you are correct; in most cases this would be avoided.

  8. je browne
    February 2, 2010 at 11:40 am | #14

    Vandy a SIX seed? I think they will be a 3 or 4 seed at worst.

  9. Jeff
    February 4, 2010 at 10:48 am | #15

    Vandy is a top 20 team at best, I think 5/6 is right were they’ll end up.

  10. ryan
    February 5, 2010 at 1:13 pm | #16

    Hey guys, i need to know where arkansas stands … lets say arkansas continues to win, they beat the likes of south carolina, vandy , and ole miss again … How would we compare to the ncaa field come march? Are we then a bubble team?
    Thanks, Ryan

    • bracketguy
      February 5, 2010 at 7:04 pm | #17

      Ryan, Arkansas has a lot of work left. The Razorbacks probably have to win most (if not all) of their remaining games to be a serious at-large candidate. The reason? The SEC West (at this point) doesn’t present many quality wins. Beating Vanderbilt, @Tennessee, and Ole Miss are absolute musts. As of Feb. 5, Arkansas’ RPI is 112. They are a much improve team with Fortson back, but at 11-11 the team’s body of work is lacking. That said, the Razorbacks could be a dangerous team at the SEC Tournament. If they finish 19-12, win the West and make the SEC Final against Kentucky, Arkansas would be in the discussion. – Dave (Bracketville)