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Here at Bracketville, you’ll find insights and updates, seeding list rankings, committee based predictions, and fan interaction. Here’s to a healthy, happy, and fun hoops 2023-24 college basketball season!
Latest Updates:
Tourney Quick Takes: Region-by-Region
Although Noon tips on Thursday will always signal the start of the NCAA tournament for me, it says here that games start on Tuesday (tonight). With that in mind, rather than offer specific picks (sure to go wrong), here are some quick takeaways related to the bracket – region by region:
EAST REGION – Boston
From an analytics standpoint, the East is the toughest – and it’s not particularly close. All four top seeds (Connecticut, Iowa State, Auburn and Illinois) rank in the Top 10 at KenPom and Top 6 in ELO. It’s obvious the Selection Committee didn’t factor in predictive metrics while creating their seed list.
Favorite: Connecticut. The defending national champs are back for a reprise, trying to become the first repeat championship since Florida in 2006-07. Other than some injuries, little has derailed the Huskies. They have everything needed to repeat. Read more…
QT: Final results on this year’s bracket
Since November, I’ve tried to provide insights into how the Field of of 68 is selected and seeded. This year, Championship Week provided a variety of additional hurdles – but what a week!. Here are this year’s projection results:
2024 Bracket Projection Results:
- 67 of 68 teams selected correctly (I had Oklahoma as last team in vs. Virginia).
- 45 teams seeded on their exact seed line.
- 16 additional teams seeded within one of their exact seed line.
- 61 of 68 either on their seed line or within one.
- Paymon Score for the Bracket Matrix: 352
- Teams I had off by more than one one seed line: Florida Atlantic, Nevada, New Mexico, Boise State, Dayton, Gonzaga
- UPDATE: Finished 5th in the 2024 Bracket Matrix
Bracketology: Connecticut leads final Field of 68
Defending national champion Connecticut returns for a reprise as the No. 1 overall seed in our final bracket projection. The Huskies arrived on top by winning both the Big East regular-season and tournament titles, and were helped along the way via conference tournament losses by Purdue and Houston.
Joining Connecticut on the top line: Purdue, Houston and North Carolina. Tennessee and Iowa State finished as the highest ranking two seeds.
In what turned out to be one of the wildest Championship Weeks in recent history, at least five at-large spots vanished due to surprise winners in the ACC, Pac-12, Mountain West, American, and Atlantic 10. In essence, the cutline moved an entire seed line. As always, your interest and passion are appreciated. Here’s to a great 2024 NCAA tournament.
Bracketology: Bid thieves could change cutline
One day from Selection Sunday and two potential bid thieves are on the prowl. Should North Carolina State and Oregon earn automatic bids today, the cutline will change. Bubble teams will be rooting against the Wolfpack and Ducks – and rooting for Florida Atlantic to win the American Athletic crown on Sunday. Those results could actually create an additional spot on the seed list.
Bracketology
Nothing firmed up among the final few teams in or out this morning. It’s just where we’ve landed after the first series of review processes. Reminder: the goal is to project what the Selection Committee is most likely to do. This year, that task is difficult. Some potentially worth at-large teams will be left at home. Take a breath; one more day to go.
Bracketology: Saint Mary’s rises, Bubble battles begin
Saint Mary’s took down Gonzaga in Las Vegas for the West Coast Conference title Tuesday night, giving SMC both the regular season and tournament titles. After a bumpy start, it’s been quite a season for the Gaels. It’s also worth noting that while Gonzaga has a more signature win (at Kentucky), Saint Mary’s owns a 2-1 head-to-head edge against the Zags, along with the aforementioned titles. Both are Top 20 NET teams, so SMC may have helped its potential seed by knocking off the Zags a second time.
Wednesday and Thursday feature some critical bubble battles – or at least tourney openers for bubble teams. We could well have a better view of the cutline by Thursday night, and should most certainly know whether a few teams are still in the mix or likely out of contention. Buckle up, March is often a wild ride.
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